Drone Wars

From Proxy Wars to Global Conflict: Are we being warned?

The United States and the UK have many things in common, beyond their representation of past and present Empire. They have also been the biggest obstacles to a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, since its onset, flooding the country with weapons in an effort to weaken Russia, both before and after Russias invasion of the Donbass. In the past few weeks the two NATO partners have something else in common - the appearance of “drones” over sensitive airspace that defy any efforts at interdiction or official explanation. Seen near airbases jointly operated by American and British military in the UK and over two counties in New Jersey, the number of sightings are off the charts. Pictures and videos are pouring in and residents are losing sleep. What could possibly be going on?

U.K. and New Jersey

Over the past two weeks, there have been a number of mysterious drone sightings over restricted airspace in the UK, particularly near British military bases used by the United States. The incidents have raised concerns, prompting both the U.S. and UK forces to take action. The drones, described as more sophisticated than typical consumer models, have been seen over multiple bases, including RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, and RAF Fairford. These bases are vital for U.S. military operations, including nuclear weapons storage, and the drones have been flying at night, sometimes evading standard radar detection.

More recently, in New Jersey, sightings in Somerset and Morris Counties, including near Picatinny Arsenal (a significant military research facility), have sparked interest. Reports describe drones or orb-like lights seen near highways and residential areas, including over President Trump’s New Jersey golf course, with helicopters reportedly investigating the events. Due to the sensitivity of these sites, these sightings have heightened security concerns around critical infrastructure.

Why not UAP?

One reporter called the New Jersey phenomenon “small car-sized” drones. Hobbyists generally don’t operate car-sized drones. One is left to wonder why these sighting have been so quick to be called “drones,” rather than UAP, the latter having been in the news lately with congressional hearings that have attempted to pierce the veil of secrecy enforced by unaccountable government employees and defense contractors. Using the drone, rather than UAP moniker, makes these craft less threatening. Authorities have also gone out of their way to say these craft don’t appear to be a threat to public safety.

These recent UAP and drone sightings share similarities with the 2020 incidents in eastern Colorado and parts of Nebraska. Back then, residents reported large drones flying in formation over rural areas during nighttime hours. These drones, described as having wingspans of up to six feet, moved in coordinated patterns, creating public concern and prompting local law enforcement and federal agencies to investigate.

State Actors or Non-human Technology?

The advanced drones sighted over New Jersey and the UK airfields exhibit capabilities that go beyond typical commercial or even most military-grade UAVs. These characteristics include extended loitering times, potential countermeasure resistance, and sophisticated navigation, possibly indicating state-sponsored surveillance or reconnaissance. Fortunately, there are rules about firing live munitions over populated areas, however it would be naive to think the military hasn’t made efforts to bring these devices down, apparently with zero effect. If these drones are indeed operated by a state actor, it would represent a bold and provocative move, given the sensitivity of the areas being surveilled—facilities connected to nuclear weapons or advanced military technologies.

Russia’s demonstrated use of drones for intelligence gathering in Ukraine and Hezbollah's drone reconnaissance over Israeli military sites underline a growing reliance on UAVs for strategic posturing. These incidents signal a potential shift in modern conflict tactics: the battlefield is now airborne and increasingly unmanned, raising questions about escalation thresholds and deterrence.

Yet, the inability to intercept these drones adds another layer of intrigue. The failure of systems like ORCUS or Falcon Shield—designed to counter UAVs—suggests either a technological leap by adversaries or the presence of an entity with unknown capabilities. Historical reports of UAPs near nuclear weapons facilities, capable of disrupting operations, provide a compelling parallel. If these events are indeed linked to non-human intelligence, it may indicate an interest in or a warning about our dangerous flirtation with nuclear escalation.

These recent sightings seem more coventional with loud engines and apparent quadcopters and octocopter form factors. Other less conventional sightings are on the rise around the world, as well, and many believe non-human intelligence could be involved. Notice I do not mention aliens, as I think creatures from a distant galaxy may be the least likely explanation. Some of the more speculative hypothoses include that these craft may be humans from the future, a space-faring machine intelligence, or some ancient planetary Gaia-esque “life,” unlike any kind we’ve ever encountered. Does it matter? Either way there seems to be a consistent message.

The Erosion of Deterrence

The broader geopolitical context amplifies these incidents' significance. The authorization for Ukraine to launch long-range strikes into Russia marks a dangerous escalation in the ongoing conflict. In response, Russia's unveiling of systems like the Oreshnik IRBM, which can deliver hypersonic kinetic warheads with devastating effects, underscores the accelerating arms race. These weapons, capable of circumventing Western defense systems, challenge traditional notions of deterrence and raise the stakes for miscalculation.

Drones—whether state-operated or otherwise—fit neatly into this volatile environment. Their presence over sensitive sites may serve multiple purposes:

• Psychological Warfare: Demonstrating vulnerabilities in Western defenses erodes public and governmental confidence.

• Intelligence Gathering: Mapping facilities, detecting weaknesses, and preparing for potential strikes.

• Strategic Messaging: Signaling capabilities without direct engagement, akin to Cold War-era overflights by reconnaissance aircraft.

Should adversaries release reconnaissance footage, the psychological impact could be immense. The perception of invulnerability—particularly for the U.S. and UK, geographically shielded by oceans—would be irrevocably shaken, further destabilizing an already precarious global order.

Stepping Back from the Edge

The suggestion that exotic drones or UAPs may represent an intelligence attempting to deter conflict is a compelling thought. Historical accounts of UAP activity during the Cold War often coincided with nuclear crises, with objects reportedly interfering with missile systems in both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. While speculative, it is worth considering whether these phenomena serve as a reminder of the existential risks posed by our technological advancements.

Ultimately, these drone sightings—whether they are adversarial, exploratory, or something entirely unknown—underscore the urgent need for diplomatic dialogue and arms control. In a world where hypersonic weapons, autonomous systems, and failing deterrence measures collide, the margin for error is vanishingly small.